The Nasdaq 100 Index and its exchange-traded funds, like the Invesco QQQ, jumped to a record high last week as the earnings season continued and as concerns about a trade war waned. 

It jumped to a high of $23,610, up sharply from the year-to-date low of $16,520. Here are the top catalysts that will affect its performance this week.

Nasdaq 100 Index chart

US inflation data

The first main catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index is the upcoming US consumer inflation data on Tuesday. This will be a closely watched report that will impact the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision. 

The median estimate among analysts is that the headline consumer inflation rose from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July, while the core figure jumped back to the psychological point at 3.0%.

If accurate, these numbers will complicate the average Federal Reserve forecast. Some Federal Reserve officials have begun to warm to the idea of interest rate cuts in September, following the recent non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, with Lisa Cook describing it as a “turning point.”

A deteriorating labor market and high inflation may fuel concerns that the US may be moving towards stagflation, which may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The Nasdaq 100 Index and the QQQ ETF do well when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. 

Top corporate earnings

The other key catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index and QQQ is the waning earnings season. Most of the constituent companies have already published their earnings.

FactSet data show that 90% of all firms in the S&P 500 have already reported. The average earnings growth in the second quarter was 11.8%, which is significantly higher than the analysts’ expectations.

The average earnings growth estimate was less than 5% due to concerns about Donald Trump’s tariffs. As such, the growth estimate is more than double what analysts were expecting. 

CoreWeave will be one of the top tech stocks to watch this week because of its role in the AI industry. It operates several data centers, which it offers to top AI companies. 

The other top company to watch will be Applied Materials, which will publish its results on Thursday. Analysts anticipate the results to show that AMAT’s earnings per share will be $2.36. 

Cisco, the biggest wholesale company, will release its results on Wednesday. Other top firms to watch will be Venture Global, Sea Limited, and Tencent. 

Trump and Putin meeting

Meanwhile, an upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska will be watched closely. The goal is to end the ongoing war that has displaced millions and killed thousands in Ukraine.

The hope is that this meeting will lead to peace in the region. Its ending, and potential scrapping of some of Russia’s tariffs will help to lower the cost of energy and inflation, which may boost the Nasdaq 100 Index.

US retail sales data and Fed speak

The other key catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index and the QQQ ETF is the upcoming US retail sales data. Economists see the data showing that the retail sales slowed from 0.6% to 0.5% because of Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

The US will also publish the latest export and import prices, manufacturing and industrial production, and consumer expectations. Like the inflation report, these numbers will influence what the Federal Reserve does and when it starts to cut rates.

The Nasdaq 100 Index does well when the Fed is cutting interest rates or when it signals that it will do that. Some Fed officials like Tom Barkin will talk this week and hint of when the bank will cut.

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